President Donald Trump’s low popularity in Arizona creates challenges for the Republican gubernatorial nominee, Andy Biggs. Biggs, who supports Trump and has earned his endorsement, trails his Democratic opponent, Governor Katie Hobbs, in pre-election polls.
The Quantus Insights poll indicates 55.4% of respondents disapprove of Trump, while 43.4% approve. While this poll doesn’t definitively link Trump’s unpopularity to Biggs’s trailing position, Quantus suggested that a national climate with the party’s president underperforming could impact competitive races.
Another poll by Noble Predictive Insights further demonstrates Biggs’s difficulties, with Hobbs ahead by a larger margin. This survey also highlights Trump’s declining popularity in Arizona, which affects Republican candidates elsewhere on the ballot.
Despite a strong primary win, where Biggs secured 74% of the vote, Trump’s endorsement might not be advantageous in Arizona. Quantus reports Trump’s job approval rating sits at -12.0, with 53.2% strongly disapproving and 38% strongly approving.
The Quantus survey, conducted on August 21 with 780 voters and a margin of error of 4.1%, shows Hobbs leading Biggs by approximately 6 percentage points, 49.1% to 43.2%. Among voters committed to a candidate, Hobbs leads 53.2% to 46.8%.
Hobbs was unopposed in the Democratic nomination, having narrowly won the 2022 governor’s race against Kari Lake with 50.3% to 49.6%. Among Arizona’s likely voters, 50% believe Hobbs warrants re-election, while 47.6% prefer a new candidate; only 2.4% remain undecided.
Younger voters lean strongly towards Hobbs, with 80.6% of those aged 18 to 29 and 63.3% aged 30 to 44 supporting her. However, support declines with older demographics: 48% of those aged 45 to 64 and 44% of those older favor her.
Urban voters support Hobbs 56% to Biggs’s 40.4%, while Biggs leads among rural and town voters, 47.6% to 32.8%. This results in a campaign focused on older versus younger, urban versus rural, and college-educated versus working-class voters.
According to Noble Predictive Insights, Hobbs leads Biggs 48% to 35%, with 12% undecided, presenting a larger gap than Quantus’s findings. Noble highlights continued challenges for Republicans in Arizona, tied to national political conditions and volatility among independents and suburban voters.