Trump’s Approval Ratings Ahead of Midterm Elections

As the November midterm elections approach, President Donald Trump is facing a more challenging political environment compared to when he first returned to office. Recent polling indicates Trump is struggling in key swing states, where even minor changes in voter sentiment could influence the control of Congress. This data comes from Civiqs’ online tracking poll, which surveyed over 120,000 registered voters.

Despite the White House highlighting Trump’s prior election win as a sign of public support, his approval ratings tell a different story. Nationally, Trump has a 36 percent approval rating and a 59 percent disapproval rating, leading to a net approval of -23. Republican territories show relatively stronger support, but Democratic areas remain highly critical, with battleground states showing significant declines in approval.

Key Trends in State-Level Approval

Several states that started Trump’s second term with positive net approval now exhibit negative numbers. Notably, some Republican-leaning states have shown significant drops in support. Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates represent Trump’s weakest demographics.

According to Brett Loyd, cofounder of the Independent Center, Trump’s decline in support among the middle third of the electorate could pose problems for Republican candidates in November. However, Democrats are cautioned against assuming that dissatisfaction with Trump will automatically translate into support for their party.

Comparison with Previous Midterms

Trump’s current situation is not unique compared to past midterms. Before the 2022 elections, Joe Biden had similar approval ratings. Trump, however, faced more favorable numbers during the 2018 midterms, with a net approval of -10, compared to -23 now.

Demographic and State-Level Insights

Nationally, Trump’s weakest demographic remains younger voters. Among those aged 18 to 34, only 22 percent approve of his performance. Independents and postgraduates also show significant disapproval. These patterns contribute to Trump’s struggles in battleground and metropolitan areas.

Despite losses, Trump’s strongest support persists in deep red states, though many have also experienced declines. For instance, Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia, once strongholds, have seen reduced approval over time.

Battleground States and Approval Shifts

Trump is underwater in all major swing states. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio show negative net approval ratings. Some of these states were previously more favorable.

Every state in the tracker has shown decreased approval since January 2025. Kentucky and Wyoming, among others, have experienced significant drops.

According to Loyd, these declines may result from voter frustration with ongoing political turmoil and economic instability, rather than a shift towards more progressive ideologies.

Persistently Negative Ratings in Democratic Strongholds

Democratic states continue to show deeply negative opinions of Trump. States like Hawaii, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, and California present the lowest net approval ratings, remaining consistent since he began his term.

Loyd acknowledges that heavily Democratic states reached their limit of Trump disapproval early on, making further declines minimal.

Middle Ground Tightens

Among states near the line between positive and negative approval, Indiana, Nebraska, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri demonstrate that while partisan geography stays familiar, margins are much closer than before.

Response from the White House

Davis Ingle, a spokesperson, emphasizes progress on economic issues. The administration reiterates that no president has achieved more than Trump, suggesting that his policies will yield more results.

Looking Forward

While approval ratings offer a snapshot of Trump’s standing, they must be viewed with other political factors. Loyd notes the parallels to the 2018 midterms, where Republicans lost the House, though he believes post-2020 redistricting might provide more protection now.

Overall, the political climate continues to evolve as the midterm elections draw near, with both parties assessing their strategies in response to these shifting dynamics.