Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau reveals that an increasing number of U.S. states are experiencing more deaths than births. This trend raises concerns about future workforce growth and the sustainability of Social Security, as the U.S. fertility rate remains below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman.

Rising Trends

Between July 2024 and July 2025, 17 states reported more deaths than births, a significant rise compared to the much of the 2010s when only four states typically experienced such a natural decrease.

Contributing Factors

Fertility rates are dropping nationwide, even in Utah, known for its large families. Rising housing costs, delayed marriage, and changing cultural attitudes contribute to fewer births. Experts suggest that the high costs of raising a child play a role in these trends.

“It’s just not feasible for families planning to have more children simply because they may not be able to afford to,” said Divya Sangameshwar, a LendingTree insurance researcher.

This financial pressure, coupled with inflation and job insecurity, could lead families to delay or reconsider having more children.

States Experiencing Natural Decline

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maine, and Michigan recorded the largest natural decreases, with many affected states located in the Northeast and Appalachia. These areas often have older populations, contributing to higher death rates.

States Showing Population Growth

In contrast, some states like Texas, California, New York, Georgia, and Utah reported natural population growth. Texas showed the largest increase, with about 157,700 more births than deaths.

The Importance of Migration

Overall population growth remains possible through immigration and domestic migration, even when deaths surpass births. Florida exemplifies this, maintaining rapid growth by attracting many new residents from other states and countries.

Marc Perry, a U.S. Census Bureau senior demographer, noted that migration might become the crucial factor for population growth in states with declining birth rates.

Future Implications

As birth and death rates become less significant in population growth, states facing natural decreases may need to focus on attracting new residents. This strategy could be vital for sustaining economic growth and supporting local businesses in the years to come.