Children were observed playing on the Mexico-U.S. border wall in Playas de Tijuana, Mexico, on May 10. This setting highlights the ongoing importance of border security, a key theme in Republican advertisements during the 2026 midterm campaign.
Immigration enforcement remains a top issue for Republicans as the midterm cycle progresses, despite earlier challenges in messaging relating to the president’s policies. Insights from a comprehensive NPR analysis of advertisement data furnished by AdImpact reveal that Republicans have allocated more financial resources and produced a greater number of ads centered on immigration compared to their Democratic counterparts. This analysis encompasses ads purchased from January through June, which is prior to the incidents involving immigration enforcement officers who fatally shot individuals in Maine and Texas this month.
The advertisements reflect the different trajectories each party anticipates heading into the general elections in November. According to the data, Republicans view immigration as a beneficial campaign theme. From the beginning of the year, both Republicans and associated organizations have released nearly 300 ads nationally, mentioning or exclusively addressing immigration issues. In comparison, Democrats and supporting organizations have released 62 ads on the topic.
One notably significant advertisement, funded by the MAGA KY PAC, states, “Republicans stood up for Americans. Democrats sat down for illegals. Thomas Massie sides with these radical-left lunatics.” This ad incurred a cost exceeding $831,000, targeting Republican Rep. Thomas Massie in the primary, with Massie later losing his race to Ed Gallrein, a candidate endorsed by Trump.
Further evaluation of the data indicates one of the costliest ad expenditures amounted to $928,000 in the Michigan governor’s race. Republican candidate Perry Johnson, self-identified as a “MAGA Conservative” with a business-focused approach to governance, asserts in the ad, “No greater example of waste, fraud, and abuse in Michigan than using our tax dollars to give benefits to illegal immigrants. As governor, I’ll be incredibly supportive of ICE coming here and removing these fraudsters.”
In prior elections, like in 2024, Republicans successfully leveraged immigration themes, emphasizing border security enhancement and crime reduction.
Professor Cameron Shelton from Claremont McKenna College remarked, “Campaigns are not trying to change minds. They’re trying to shape what the election’s about. They’re trying to energize the voters they already have.” The extensive Republican investment in immigration advertisement suggests they perceive immigration as a potent mobilizing issue.
Political Campaign Focus
Throughout the primary season, decisive for many candidates due to over 90% of gubernatorial, House, and Senate races being classified as safe for one party, immigration and enforcement persist as top issues for both parties. Some Democrats became more vocal about immigration issues at the start of 2026, especially in states witnessing intense enforcement activity. In New Jersey, Illinois, and Minnesota, Democrats criticized the administration’s tactics, advocating the need to “abolish ICE.” The Illinois Future PAC spent over $800,000 each on two ads supporting Juliana Stratton’s stance, who subsequently won the Democratic primary for Senate in Illinois.
Months into the year, Democrats began concentrating on other significant issues as a strategy to stand out from fellow party members, frequently focusing on healthcare topics, while Republicans maintained their immigration-centric narratives.
Shelton elaborates that during the primary season, campaigns experiment with issues anticipated to resonate until the general election. As per AdImpact data, “Donald Trump” emerges as the foremost subject for TV ad investments by both parties. For Republicans, “Immigration” secures the second-highest spending position. For Democrats, “ICE” ranks just below “Healthcare.”
Shelton explains the significance of ads: “It’s a signal to donors, activists, interest groups, local candidates. It helps coordinate a lot of the actors that we think of as the party.” This advertising strategy lays out a directional path for party members.
Connecting Immigration to Other Key Issues
From January to June, Republicans substantially surpassed Democratic expenditure on immigration-related ads by approximately $36 million. Republican ads focusing on immigration, amounting to $53 million in total spending, aired in 88 races across 27 states. Meanwhile, Democratic ads totaled $17 million, running in 20 races in 11 states, mainly those experiencing intensified immigration enforcement, such as California, New York, and Illinois.
Mike Marinella, National Press Secretary at the National Republican Congressional Committee, stated, “Republican candidates have a large menu of issues we are on the right side of that are all very popular amongst voters.” He emphasized that immigration interlinks with key issues like border security, crime, and the economy.
Marinella further comments, “The most effective message depends on the district and how those issues are affecting that particular community.” For instance, Zach Lahn, winner of the GOP primary bid for Iowa governor, dedicated roughly $475,000 to an ad in May pledging to prohibit hiring H-1B visa holders by Iowa government agencies and universities, strategically connecting immigration concerns with economic considerations.
Despite a decline in border crossings following Trump’s presidency, Marinella reaffirmed that candidates continue prioritizing border security themes for voters. Most Republican ads emphasize “securing the border,” discussing border wall funding and crime reduction. Some ads introduce discussions on specific proposals like limiting commercial driver’s licenses and advocating the SAVE America Act, which proposes stricter citizenship proof requirements for voting.
An example from Florida’s 19th congressional district highlights Jim Oberweis, amongst multiple GOP seat contenders, who spent $880,000 on seven ads appealing to end birthright citizenship.
Democrats’ Pro-Immigration Rallying
Conversely, Democratic advertisements steer clear of detailing policy proposals, instead opting to criticize incumbents’ recent legislative votes that fund immigration officers or expand the detention scope.
Other ads convey personal connections to immigration, advocating for enforcement limits, and promoting general pro-immigrant sentiments. Frank Sharry from Third Way suggests, “Democrats are finding their voice on immigration after a rough few years during the Biden administration.” Sharry contends, “I don’t think they’ll be running a bunch of ads on it. I do think they’ll be speaking to the issue and winning the argument, which is more important than whether they run ads on it or not.”
A Gallup poll from July illustrates that the majority of Americans perceive immigration positively, supporting some pathway to citizenship over outright deportation policies, with notable party-aligned differences. Most Republicans favor boosting Border Patrol hiring, deporting those without legal status, and banning sanctuary cities.
Republican ads targeting Democrats have commenced in Senate races in Ohio, Texas, and Alaska, plus gubernatorial contests in New York and Iowa. Strategists note this trend could indicate each party’s strategic focus on immigration leading up to the November elections.
Yet, strategists advise caution before drawing conclusions about party strategies from advertisements alone. Sharry reflects, “Back in the day, ads were king. Now you have so many diverse streams of information arriving to people on their phones that it’s just not the same.” He emphasizes the importance of considering interviews, debates, and other public statements, which are seldom captured in ad data.