Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is leading in California’s gubernatorial primary race, according to a recent poll. This poll comes just before Tuesday’s primary election. Meanwhile, Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton are closely competing for the second position.

California utilizes a top-two primary system. Regardless of party affiliation, all candidates appear on the same ballot. The two candidates receiving the most votes move on to the general election. This system allows even two candidates from the same party to advance.

Historically, California has leaned Democratic in statewide elections. For instance, in the 2024 election, former Vice President Kamala Harris won her home state over President Donald Trump by approximately 20 percentage points. The last Republican to serve as California’s governor was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who left office in 2011.

Who Is Running for California Governor?

The current Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, cannot run due to term limits. This opens up the race, drawing national attention.

The leading candidates include:

• Xavier Becerra: Democrat, former HHS secretary under President Joe Biden
• Chad Bianco: Republican, Riverside County sheriff
• Steve Hilton: Republican political commentator, former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron
• Matt Mahan: Democrat, mayor of San Jose
• Katie Porter: Democrat, former Congress representative for an Orange County district
• Tom Steyer: Democratic businessman
• Tony Thurmond: Democrat, state superintendent of public instruction
• Antonio Villaraigosa: Democrat, former Los Angeles mayor

Two other contenders, former Representative Eric Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee, exited their campaigns before the primary.

The Democratic field varies in ideology, with Becerra aligning with party establishment, while Porter advocates a policy-focused, anti-corporate progressive stance, focusing on consumer protection. Villaraigosa offers a centrist view. Conversely, Steyer promotes a populist progressive message focused on climate and economic inequality, utilizing personal funds for an aggressive campaign.

Republicans include Bianco and Hilton, representing traditional conservative and populist outsider perspectives. Both face challenges in a mainly Democratic state. However, the top-two primary could favor these candidates in a fragmented field. President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton last month.

Hilton indicated confidence but emphasized hard work until the primary’s end. Most polls place him in the top two, but margins are tight.

The general election follows Tuesday’s primary in November.

What the New Poll Shows

The final Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey shows Becerra leading with 28% support. Steyer closely follows with 22% and Hilton with 21%.

Bianco has 12% support, while Porter and Mahan each have 5%. Additionally, 5% of voters remain undecided. Among those undecided, Becerra’s support stays at 28%, with Hilton and Steyer each at 23%.

This poll surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters on May 27-28, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

This statement was made by Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. Kimball noted that Hilton could benefit if Bianco’s support dwindles. Steyer aims to mobilize younger voters to compete with Becerra’s coalition.

What Other Polls Show

The recent poll indicates Becerra’s support rose by 9 points since a mid-May survey by the same organizations. Steyer and Hilton also gained, with increases of 5 and 4 points, respectively.

In the earlier poll, Becerra led with 19%, while Hilton and Steyer each held 17%. Bianco had 11%, and Porter 10%. This poll also had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Becerra and Steyer have consistently grown in support across several polls this year. Hilton has shown consistent, modest growth. However, Porter’s support diminished, as did undecided voter numbers.

A recent University of California Berkeley poll conducted May 19-24 among 5,472 likely voters showed Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer at 19%. This poll had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

The poll also reported Bianco at 11%, Porter at 7%, and Mahan at 4%.

The PPIC Statewide Survey conducted between May 14-18 with 986 likely voters indicated Becerra leading with 23% support. Hilton followed at 20%, with Steyer at 15%, Bianco at 13%, Porter at 12%, Mahan at 8%, and Villaraigosa at 4%.

This poll’s margin of error is 4.1 percentage points, placing the three-point gap between Becerra and Hilton within its range, lacking statistical conclusivity.

Recent polling results comfort Democrats, as earlier data raised concerns about Republicans Hilton and Bianco possibly advancing to the general election, given that several prominent Democrats could split the vote.