As California’s gubernatorial primary on June 2 nears, a new poll reveals a close race among three candidates hoping to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom. A survey by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies shows Democrat Xavier Becerra leading with 25% support from likely voters. Republican Steve Hilton has 21%, and Democrat Tom Steyer holds 19%. These findings indicate a tightening contest.

Voter support for Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer has grown since March. Previously, Becerra was trailing with only 5% backing. He is now the front-runner. Other candidates like Republican Chad Bianco have seen a decline, with Bianco now in a distant fourth place. Former Rep. Katie Porter also fell to 7% support. Poll director Mark DiCamillo warns that candidate standings might still change before the primary, especially with low voter turnout complicating predictions.

Despite all California registered voters receiving mail-in ballots, many remain unreturned. DiCamillo expects Democrats to vote heavily in the final week, altering early leads, particularly benefiting Becerra. The poll, conducted from May 19 to 24, found Democrats preferred Becerra over Steyer by 11 points. Becerra also has significant support among women and Latino voters, while Steyer is backed by Black voters. Hilton holds preference among libertarians and certain regional voters.

The primary outcome matters because the top two candidates, regardless of party, proceed to the November general election. Although registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state, low turnout earlier in the year raised fears of Republicans Hilton and Bianco advancing. Hilton gained momentum with Trump’s endorsement, swaying over a third of Republican voters. While the race remains close, the chances of two Republicans dominating seem slim as party leaders encouraged underperforming Democrats to withdraw.

This election unfolds during challenging times. Federal healthcare cuts threaten vulnerable Californians, and economic instability looms due to factors like soaring gas prices. Voter concerns span the cost of living, homelessness, and public safety. Voting rights protection remains a priority, reflecting differing underlying political anxieties. Despite uncertainties, the June primary will shape the trajectory of California’s leadership during crucial years ahead.