President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily increase beef import quotas has impacted his approval ratings across 10 major beef-producing states. Data from Civiqs’ rolling online tracking survey indicates a drop in Trump’s net approval rating between August 21 and September 21.

In Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas, Trump’s net approval rating has fallen. While the White House argued that additional imports could lower beef prices for consumers, critics raised concerns about potential negative effects on U.S. ranchers as they strive to rebuild the national cattle herd.

Trump is balancing two pressures: reducing grocery costs for consumers and protecting cattle producers from increased competition from imported beef. This political challenge is significant in states where the cattle industry is crucial and concerned about the government’s policy.

Approval Rating Changes

All 10 states in the dataset recorded a decline in net approval during the specified period. Although the changes were modest, they were consistent across the region. In Kentucky, Trump lost three points, falling from -8 to -11, while in Oklahoma, his ratings fell from +4 to +1.

In Kansas, Trump’s rating declined two points from +4 to +2; Missouri, from -24 to -26; Montana, from +3 to +1; North Dakota, from +14 to +12; South Dakota, from +5 to +3; Texas, from -18 to -20; and Florida, from -13 to -15. Nebraska recorded the smallest decline, moving one point from -3 to -4. Across these states, the average decline was 2.1 percentage points, while the median decline was 2 points.

The pattern is notable, but the shifts cannot be conclusively linked to Trump’s beef policy. Changes in presidential approval can result from multiple factors, and the movements recorded were between one and three percentage points.

Beef Importation Plan

On August 21, Trump announced a plan to curb elevated grocery prices by temporarily allowing up to 300,000 metric tons of additional beef imports for ground beef production over 90 days without the usual higher out-of-quota tariff.

Trump stated on Truth Social, “For the next 90 days, the United States will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out-of-quota tariff. We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices. This deal will reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again.”

The announcement came amid pressure from elevated beef prices. Beef and veal prices were 9.4 percent higher than a year earlier with cattle supply at historically low levels.

Industry Concerns

The plan faced resistance from the cattle industry and some Republicans in states where ranching is economically vital. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association expressed that increasing below-market imported beef supplies could hinder efforts to rebuild the American cattle herd. CEO Colin Woodall criticized the policy, stating it “sacrifices long-term stability for short-term messaging.”

“NCBA is disappointed by the President’s statement. While America’s cattle producers share the goal of keeping groceries affordable, flooding the market with government-subsidized, below-market beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd. Cattle markets have already turned sharply lower, affecting farmers and ranchers,” Woodall stated in a press release.

Outgoing Republican Representative Thomas Massie criticized Trump’s proposal as a “nothing-burger,” asserting that existing regulations allow farmers to process their own meat, but currently prohibit selling it “by the cut.” Massie questioned what Trump’s corporate meatpacking bosses might allow.

Approval Ratings Despite Declines

Trump maintained positive approval in five of the 10 states on September 21: North Dakota, where he held the highest net approval rating in the group at plus 12, South Dakota at plus 3, Kansas at plus 2, Montana at plus 1, and Oklahoma at plus 1.

The administration has depicted the beef action as part of efforts to address affordability ahead of the midterm elections in November. The 90-day measure is set to continue past Election Day, November 3.