Recent findings from an Emerson College poll highlight which Democratic candidates hold strong leads over potential Republican contenders Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election. Traditionally, candidates declare their intention to run post-midterms, yet some start earlier, building recognition and voter connections.
While the first votes are over a year away, early polls can hint at candidates’ initial momentum. These polls assist donors and voters in assessing candidate viability and influence fundraising and media coverage. Early polling often reflects initial name recognition and can change as primaries progress.
Key Democratic Contenders
The Democratic race is expected to be both competitive and crowded. Potential nominees include former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Republican Front-Runners
Vance and Rubio are seen as leading Republican candidates should they decide to enter the race.
Performance in Hybrid Matchups
The Emerson College poll, conducted from August 16-17, 2026, surveyed 1,000 likely voters with a ±3 percentage point margin of error. According to the poll:
- Buttigieg leads both Vance and Rubio by 5 points, with each Republican polling at 44 percent.
- Ossoff shows a 5-point lead over Vance and a 3-point lead over Rubio.
- Newsom holds a 5-point lead over Vance and a 2-point lead over Rubio.
- Harris leads Vance by 4 points but trails Rubio by 5 points.
- Both Republicans lead Ocasio-Cortez, with Vance ahead by 2 points and Rubio by 5 points.
Newsweek reached out to representatives for all mentioned politicians for commentary.
Current Democratic Primary Landscape
Polls suggest a splintered Democratic primary. An Echelon Insights poll shows Harris leading with 18 percent, followed by Buttigieg, Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, and Ossoff. Many other candidates trail below 5 percent. This survey, with a ±3.4 percentage margin of error, polled 1,002 likely voters from August 13-17, 2026.
Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll positions Buttigieg as the front-runner with 19 percent, trailed by Newsom, Ossoff, Ocasio-Cortez, and Harris. This survey polled 1,110 likely voters with a ±2.9 percentage margin of error from July 19-20, 2026.
Republican Primary Insights
Potential Republican candidates in recent polls include Vance, polling at 39 percent, and Rubio at 22 percent. Other figures like Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, Jr. also show some support, with Vance leading in another Emerson College poll closely followed by Rubio.
Statements from Potential Candidates
Vance indicated he would consider his 2028 plans post-midterms. Harris has mentioned a possible run, having significant experience close to the presidency. Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez addressed speculation with Newsom deferring to fate and Ocasio-Cortez emphasizing lasting policy change over holding office. Ossoff expressed no interest in the 2028 race.
What Lies Ahead?
The 2026 midterm outcomes on November 3 will likely shape the early presidential race dynamics. Post-midterms, potential candidates are expected to enhance fundraising, engage early-voting states, and forge campaign structures, with the race intensifying as we approach 2028.
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