Five years ago, Baltimore faced over 300 homicides annually. Today, homicides and nonfatal shootings have decreased by around 60%. Since September 2022, the homicide rate in Baltimore has steadily declined. The city reported only 133 homicides in 2025, the lowest in nearly five decades. A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that Baltimore’s reductions outpaced trends in other cities by about 25%, without an increase in arrests. This was not a chance occurrence, nor was it achieved overnight or through enforcement alone.
Historically, Baltimore attempted to tackle violence through mass arrests, with numbers reaching up to 100,000 annually in a city of about 600,000 residents. This zero-tolerance approach eroded trust in the government, yet violence persisted. While arrests play a role in public safety, aggressive enforcement harmed non-white communities and did not significantly impact violent crime.
Strategic Shift in 2022
In 2022, Baltimore shifted focus, prioritizing violence reduction. The strategy emphasized that violence centers around a small group of individuals, places, and conflicts. Data showed fewer than 2% of residents were linked to groups responsible for 75% of serious violent acts. This data-driven approach meant concentrating efforts where they were most needed.
The Group Violence Reduction Strategy involves in-person outreach led by community leaders. The message is straightforward: assistance is available, but continued violence will face focused response. Those seeking help receive support like life coaching and job training. Those continuing in violence face accountability through law enforcement.
Impact of Focused Approach
Baltimore built a service infrastructure to reach those previously seen only through enforcement. This combination of focus, support, and accountability led to significant outcomes. In the Western District, where the strategy started, homicides and nonfatal shootings dropped by about one-third in the first 18 months, with no crime displacement and stable low-level arrests. Among the hundreds who accepted support, over 94% have not been victimized again.
This approach had been attempted unsuccessfully before. Previously, the issue was in execution, not the strategy itself. This time, a five-year implementation plan was set, starting with the historically violent Western District and expanding carefully. This required patience and facing critique from those demanding quicker results. The priority was committing to what’s right over what’s popular.
Collaborative Efforts and Sustainable Success
Addressing violence requires managing it with discipline. A single agency cannot resolve such a complex issue alone. Police, prosecutors, outreach workers, service providers, community partners, and city agencies collaborate weekly to review incidents, identify emerging risks, and coordinate responses. Residents and grassroots leaders significantly shaped these efforts, as those closest to the problems often hold the solutions.
Research from other cities supports this: partnership-based, targeted strategies succeed with proper management and continuity beyond short-term cycles. The goal remains reducing violence while minimizing community harm. This involves matching accountability with tangible support, targeting enforcement on a few rather than neighborhoods, and elevating trusted community voices.
The positive effects are visible citywide: safer neighborhoods, empowered youth, and the emergence of new businesses on revitalized blocks. While work remains and any life lost is too many, Baltimore’s improvements demonstrate government effectiveness when focused, evidence-based, and partnership-driven. The broader lesson is that cities can combine accountability with support, creating systems to deliver both effectively.
Brandon M. Scott is the 52nd mayor of Baltimore, leading initiatives in violence reduction and public investment. Anthony A. Braga, Ph.D., is a criminology professor and director at the University of Pennsylvania.’s Crime and Justice Policy Lab.