Democrat David Crowley holds a narrow advantage over Republican Tom Tiffany in the Wisconsin governor race, according to a new poll. The survey is the first since both candidates won their primaries earlier in August. Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race is expected to be among the most competitive in the 2026 midterm elections. Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, will retire at the end of his term, leaving an open seat in this closely contested swing state.

Tom Tiffany, a congressman supported by Donald Trump, secured the GOP nomination with ease. David Crowley, Milwaukee County’s executive, narrowly defeated democratic socialist state Representative Francesca Hong in the Democratic primary.

Crowley’s Edge in Latest Poll

A poll from Platform Communications shows Crowley leading Tiffany by 4 points, with Crowley at 48% and Tiffany at 44%. The poll was reported by Wisconsin Public Radio.

Crowley enjoys a +17 net favorability, with 43% viewing him positively compared to 26% negatively. Tiffany’s favorability stands at -5 points, with 38% favoring him and 43% unfavorable. The poll surveyed 500 likely voters from August 12-13, 2026.

Henrik Schatzinger, a Ripon College political science professor, noted that the race is competitive, though Crowley has a slight edge. “Four points is a lead but not a cushion,” Schatzinger said. “Wisconsin remains closely divided, but Democrats have performed well in recent statewide races.”

The Democratic primary aftermath was handled well by the party, according to Schatzinger. “The Democrats came together quickly, and now the key is whether they can convert this unity into voter turnout,” he said.

Reaction from the Candidates

Tiffany stated he is focused on lowering taxes and reducing costs for Wisconsin families. He criticized Crowley for increasing Milwaukee County’s sales tax and for the county’s financial woes. “Voters will see he failed Milwaukee County and cannot let him fail Wisconsin,” Tiffany said.

Crowley responded that Wisconsin families agree Tiffany’s agenda is too extreme. “Working families across the state are joining our movement,” Crowley stated, emphasizing his plans to lower costs, support public schools, and build a prosperous future.

Other Polls and Market Predictions

The new poll results align with earlier surveys showing Crowley with a modest lead. A GBAO poll of 800 likely voters showed Crowley up by 3 points. Another poll from RMG Research also showed Crowley leading by 3 points.

Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket give Crowley a 75% and 78% chance of winning, respectively. These markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts based on political outcomes, reflecting current sentiment, though they don’t always predict the future accurately.

Data Centers as Controversial Topic

Data centers are a key issue in the Wisconsin governor race. Crowley faces criticism for his views on data centers. He told NBC News he opposes a moratorium on data centers in the state.

Schatzinger identified data centers as Crowley’s vulnerability, noting that Wisconsin public opinion opposes them. Tiffany’s campaign released an attack ad, labeling Crowley “Data Center David Crowley.”

Crowley outlined a plan to let communities decide on data centers, with requirements for renewable energy and infrastructure updates. Tiffany previously praised data centers, emphasizing ratepayers should not face higher costs.

Primary Surprise: Crowley’s Comeback

Crowley pulled ahead in the primary despite Francesca Hong’s significant lead in earlier polls. Concerns about Hong’s general election viability sparked Crowley’s re-entry into the race, ultimately winning by a slim margin.

Hong’s previous remarks on social media, including calling to “Cancel Thanksgiving,” drew negative attention and raised concerns among Democrats about her electability.

Wisconsin: A Key Battleground

Wisconsin remains one of the most competitive states. Its political landscape has shifted, with Republicans strengthening in rural areas and Democrats maintaining urban bases.

Wisconsin last elected a Republican governor in 2014. With Tony Evers retiring, the seat is in play, marking a crucial battleground in upcoming elections.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball suggests a lean towards Democrats.