Republican Bruce Blakeman is closing the gap on Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul in the New York governor race, as indicated by a recent poll from Siena University. Traditionally, New York is seen as a stronghold for Democrats, yet there is a trend of narrowing margins. For instance, Vice President Kamala Harris won New York by fewer than 13 points, a decrease from President Joe Biden’s 23-point victory in 2020. In 2022, Hochul narrowly defeated Lee Zeldin by approximately 6 points.

These trends, combined with Hochul’s previous election results, have raised Republicans’ hopes for a competitive governor race. They plan to link Hochul and moderate Democrats to progressive lawmakers in New York City, many of whom are democratic socialists.

However, Democrats point out that Hochul is now more well-known and favorable than in her last race. The national climate seems to favor Democrats due to President Donald Trump’s reduced approval rating, the unpopular Iran war, and economic concerns.

Hochul’s Lead Narrows

In the latest poll, Hochul leads Blakeman by 10 points, with 49 percent of support against Blakeman’s 39 percent among 811 likely voters surveyed from August 3-6, 2026. This is a decline from a 20-point lead in June and comes with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

Other Democratic candidates performed better in this poll. In the attorney general race, Letitia James led Saritha Komatireddy by 18 points. State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli held a 23-point lead over Joseph Hernandez.

Political science expert Boris Heersink noted that although it’s surprising that Hochul is trailing other Democrats, a ten-point lead remains solid compared to her 2022 performance. He stated that the state’s Democratic majority makes a Hochul loss highly unlikely.

Joseph Viteritti from Hunter College observed that while Hochul has a “safe lead,” Blakeman’s growing recognition helps him gain momentum.

Bruce Blakeman noted discrepancies in recent polls and claimed that the race is “neck and neck.” He criticized Hochul’s record on taxes, utility costs, and crime, calling her the “worst governor in America.”

Additional Polls and Forecasts

Other polls show varied results. A co/efficient poll from late June to early July placed Hochul 6 points ahead of Blakeman but included 12 percent undecided voters. An Echelon Insights poll from March showed a 15-point lead for Hochul. Political forecasters consider the race safe for Democrats, supported by prediction markets that give Hochul a 94 percent chance of winning.

In the Democratic primary, Hochul’s campaign faced potential challenges. Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado considered a primary bid against her but withdrew, leading to Hochul’s renomination. She also secured an endorsement from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Viteritti noted that Hochul’s relationship with Mamdani could prevent defections from the left.

Progressives and Statewide Impact

Progressives saw victories in New York’s Democratic primaries, with democratic socialists like Darializa Avila-Chevalier and Brad Lander winning key races. Some Republicans hope this could deter moderate voters, making way for a Republican comeback.

Bruce Blakeman asserted that Hochul follows Mamdani’s agenda, portraying him as influential within the party.

Heersink, however, doubted that these progressive wins would harm Democrats statewide. He believed midterms would focus more on the Trump administration’s impact and voters are likely to remain consistent in their party choices.

Shifts in New York’s Political Landscape

The gap between Democrats and Republicans is shrinking in New York. The state has seen a significant rightward shift from 2020 to 2024, with Republicans gaining traction in New York City’s outer boroughs among Latino and Asian communities. Issues like crime contribute to Democrats’ declining margins.

The upcoming elections will indicate whether Republicans can continue making progress or if Democrats will regain support. Despite these shifts, Democrats still hold a sizeable advantage in voter registration, with over 6.4 million registered Democrats compared to nearly 3 million Republicans statewide.