The early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw calls from the West for more artillery and tanks to support Ukraine. As the war enters its fifth year, President Volodymyr Zelensky terms the conflict a decisive ‘battle in the sky,’ marking a critical moment for Western nations.
The ground conflict has hit a stalemate. Russia continues its gradual territorial advances but faces significant losses. In June alone, Ukraine reported inflicting nearly 40,000 Russian casualties, a rate sharply higher than the previous year, as per the Institute for the Study of War. The Institute highlights Ukraine’s increasing effectiveness in hindering Russian progress and causing greater losses.
The current air battle focuses on attrition and strategic erosion rather than territorial gains. Russia relentlessly targets Ukraine with drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. In response, Ukraine deploys advanced, long-range drones to push Russian naval forces from the Black Sea, pressure Russian-occupied Crimea, and target strategic sites within Russia’s borders. Recent disruptions in Moscow fuel supplies and refinery damages in Omsk exemplify this strategy. The consequences manifest in scenes of destruction in Kyiv as well.
“If you stop the enemy on the battlefield, if you stop the war on land, and if you deny him dominance at sea… then the next battlefield becomes the sky,”
President Zelensky stressed this in a Financial Times interview. He argued that the contest’s focus is not territorial size but the capability to intercept Russian offensives. Currently, this is challenging due to a deficit of interceptors.
Following significant U.S. missile use against Iran, including Patriot interceptors, supply shortages affect Ukraine’s defense. During a major Russian attack on July 6, Ukraine managed to intercept drones and cruise missiles, but a ballistic missile slipped through due to insufficient interceptors.
Russia continues to bolster its arsenal, reportedly producing about 60 Iskander missiles monthly, a primary weapon used against Ukraine according to Ukrainian intelligence.