Small states often find themselves under the protection of powerful allies. Such protection can lead to a dual outcome: they become militarily strong but lack strategic discipline. These states may learn to wield power but fail to understand its consequences. They adopt the behavior of a sovereign nation but lack the responsibility, as the costs of sovereignty are borne by other nations through arms shipments, guarantees, Security Council vetoes, and diplomatic efforts. Over time, their strategic thinking may weaken, replaced by the belief that military force can stand in for statecraft.

Israel embodies this situation. Its recent military action against Iran, performed in concert with the United States, intended to bolster Israel’s regional dominance. However, it might instead highlight the constraints Israel faces.

The attack left Iran damaged, yet its nuclear ambitions remain, and its government continues. Rather than a transformed Iran, Israel might now confront a resilient version of its old adversary. The recent memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran aims to pause hostilities on their terms, underscoring Israel’s limited achievement. Israel could participate in the conflict but could not dictate its resolution.

This reveals a deeper issue beneath Israel’s operational accomplishments. Despite demonstrating capability to strike Iran, Israel achieved reach but not resolution. What remains is a state of strategic uncertainty, a weakened diplomatic position, and a reliance on the United States extending further than Israeli leaders publicly acknowledge, or perhaps even recognize themselves.

For decades, Israel has projected an image of self-reliance while existing within the framework of American security. Its leaders have consistently asserted Israel’s ability to independently defend itself. Yet, this declaration is supported by American weapons, intelligence sharing, wartime resupplies, and $3.8 billion annually in U.S. military aid. As Israel’s dependence grew, its insistence on standing alone intensified.