Democrat Josh Turek narrowly leads Republican Ashley Hinson in a recently released internal poll for the Iowa Senate race. Despite its historical position as a swing state favoring Barack Obama, Iowa has leaned Republican over the past decade. Donald Trump gained a significant margin in 2024. However, Democrats aim to make the Senate race competitive this year, leveraging Trump’s declining national approval.
The Current Iowa Senate Race
This race is a significant test of whether Democrats can recover in the Midwest after substantial losses. Both Turek, a state legislator, and Hinson, a U.S. representative, campaign to replace Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who opted not to seek reelection.
Latest Polls and Predictions
A Global Strategy Group poll indicates Turek leads Hinson by 2 points, receiving 47% vs. Hinson’s 45%. Trump’s popularity in Iowa has dipped, with 45% viewing him favorably against 52% unfavorably. The survey includes 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error at 3.1 percentage points.
Other polls suggest a tight race. A Public Policy Polling survey sponsored by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shows both candidates tied at 46%. Echelon Insights shows Turek ahead by one point, while an earlier GBAO poll had Hinson leading by 4 points.
Despite recent polls favoring Turek, prediction markets lean towards Hinson. She has a 58% chance on Kalshi and 61% on Polymarket of winning in November. These markets reflect traders’ views on political outcomes, influenced by polls, fundraising, and broader trends.
Candidate Backgrounds
Hinson, representing northeastern Iowa in Congress since 2021, previously secured a fiercely contested seat from a Democrat. Before politics, she worked in journalism and served in the Iowa House of Representatives. Trump endorses her candidacy.
Turek, part of the Iowa House of Representatives since 2023, previously excelled in Paralympic wheelchair basketball. He positions himself as a moderate capable of attracting Trump voters, as he represents a district Trump carried multiple times.
Iowa’s Political Shift
Once a battleground, Iowa transitioned to a Republican stronghold over the past decade. Obama’s substantial wins in 2008 and 2012 contrast with Trump’s success in 2016, 2020, and 2024. This shift mirrors broader Midwestern trends, with Republicans gaining among white working-class voters. Democrats need to reconnect with these voters to alter Iowa’s political landscape.
Challenges Republicans face include Trump’s diminished popularity, adverse effects of tariffs, and gas price hikes due to the Iran war. These issues could influence the GOP’s performance in upcoming elections. Expert forecasts, such as Cook Political Report, presently categorize Iowa as Leans Republican.
Political analysts, like Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, acknowledge uncertainties. Hinson’s financial advantages, coupled with her district performance, initially placed the race as Likely Republican, now adjusted to Lean Republican. They identify broader Democratic challenges in targeting GOP-held seats with red-leaning tendencies.
Democrats’ Senate Prospects
Midterms historically challenge the party in the White House, offering Democrats potential to reclaim the House. Yet, electoral mapping indicates formidable Senate hurdles. Republicans hold 53 seats to Democrats’ 47, compelling Democrats to gain four seats for a majority.
Democrats focus on North Carolina, where Trump had a narrow victory. They also target Maine, a Democratic stronghold, yet defend two Trump-winning states, Georgia and Michigan. Even if Democrats gain these seats, Republicans maintain a slim majority at 51-49. Democrats look to heavily Republican states like Iowa, attempting potential Democratic flips.
Overall, projection markets predict a Republican-controlled Senate. Kalshi and Polymarket estimate GOP chances at 58% and 57%, respectively, maintaining Republican dominance in this midterm election cycle.