Gavin Newsom’s potential 2028 presidential candidacy gained attention after it was revealed that the Justice Department under Donald Trump is investigating him. Newsom, a possible Democratic contender yet to announce a campaign, shared that federal agents recently visited the homes of his family, friends, and former staff. The visits aimed to collect documents and records.
Political Motivation Alleged
Newsom suggested that the investigation is politically driven, possibly related to his potential presidential bid. He stated that Trump is targeting him because he is considering running for president. Analysts claim the investigation could politically benefit Newsom, as it might provide a boost in fundraising and media exposure.
“As we saw with Senator Mark Kelly, investigations perceived as partisan can enhance media coverage and fundraising,” Democratic strategist Eddie Vale told Newsweek.
Prediction Markets React
- Newsom’s odds for the 2028 presidential race have increased according to prediction markets.
- On Kalshi, Newsom now has a 24 percent chance to win the Democratic primary, compared to 21.7 percent a week prior.
- Polymarket shows his election chances rising from 14.4 percent on June 9 to 16 percent recently.
Prediction markets involve trading contracts related to political results and events, reflecting traders’ sentiment, although they don’t always predict future outcomes accurately.
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, noted that being under investigation doesn’t significantly derail campaigns, given recent political history.
Newsom’s Standing in Polls
Despite the investigation, Newsom remains a strong contender in Democratic polls for 2028. A recent Noble Predictive Insights poll shows:
- Kamala Harris leads with 27 percent support compared to Newsom’s 14 percent.
- Pete Buttigieg at 11 percent, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8 percent.
- Arizona Senator Mark Kelly receives 5 percent support.
Other polls show Harris maintaining a strong lead, but Newsom is consistently among the top contenders.
Investigations and Responses
Newsom has neither confirmed nor denied his intentions to run in 2028. However, he has visited early-voting states and taken steps that hint at potential candidacy. Newsom’s criticism of Trump and active presence on social media have also attracted attention.
DOJ Investigation Details
An ongoing investigation involves Newsom and his wife, Jennifer, initiated by sources in California and handled by the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Sacramento. The full scope and details remain unclear, but it includes issues relating to Jennifer Newsom’s taxes and staff inquiries.
The DOJ has been criticized for what Newsom describes as targeting those who oppose Trump politically. Newsom, in a statement, expressed resolve, claiming he has “nothing to hide” and dismisses the investigation as a misuse of the grand jury process.
Investigations of critics have also included other figures like former FBI and CIA directors, though some were eventually dropped.
What Lies Ahead
The impact of the investigation on Newsom’s political future remains uncertain. Future polling will indicate public response and potential shifts in his support base. Candidates are expected to start announcing campaigns in 2027, with the investigation’s specifics potentially revealed over time, although no timeline for disclosure of details exists.