The World Cup often defies expectations, with unexpected results that surprise fans worldwide. While two prominent teams usually make it to the final, many matches showcase underdog victories. For example, in 2022, Saudi Arabia surprised many by defeating eventual champions Argentina 2-1 during the group stage. Similarly, in 2002, Senegal beat France, which was a significant moment given the historical ties between the two nations. In that same year, South Korea, co-host of the tournament, triumphed over Italy and reached the semi-finals.
Given these unpredictable outcomes, making accurate World Cup predictions is challenging. However, our team has taken inspiration from our Premier League predictions series by The Athletic’s Oliver Kay. We aim to provide insights and forecasts for every World Cup matchday.
Throughout the tournament, my colleague Andy Jones and I, Elias Burke, will share expert analysis. We’ll identify key players to watch and assess how challenging each game is to forecast. Andy, who covers Liverpool, and I, covering Tottenham Hotspur, bring deep insights from watching various international football matches.
Athletic’s subscribers are returning to share their predictions, competing against yours truly. We will also include young Wilf, who placed second in Premier League predictions, and ‘Algo’, our new algorithm calibrated for the World Cup. Making his debut is Stanley, a young whippet joining the prediction team.
If you wish to participate as a guest subscriber, instructions are available within this article. The format mirrors the Premier League series with minor tweaks. We predict results, not scorelines, for the World Cup. A correct outcome earns a point. This version will span from June 11, when Mexico faces South Africa, to the final on July 19. We will maintain a leaderboard tracking accuracy, showcasing prediction streaks.
Even if you’re new to international football, we have experts from each of the 48 participating nations to provide context on team strengths and form before each match. Despite uncertainty in forecasting, the thrill of the World Cup lies in these surprises. Our aim is to outpredict the algorithm!
Enjoy the tournament and best of luck with your predictions!