A recent Trafalgar Group poll shows Representative Nancy Mace trailing multiple rivals in South Carolina’s competitive Republican gubernatorial primary. The change comes shortly after President Donald Trump endorsed Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, influencing the race dynamics ahead of Tuesday’s primary.
Influence of Trump’s Endorsement
Trump’s backing is influential among South Carolina’s GOP voters, often swaying decisions in fragmented fields.
Polling and Campaign Responses
Conducted from June 2-4, the survey reveals a tightly contested race with no single candidate emerging as the leader. Mace’s campaign responded to the survey by expressing skepticism, as conveyed by a spokesperson to Newsweek: “This is what we call a suppression poll. Grassroots are dropping their support of Pam like a hot potato. We think Cahaly just slams his head on a keyboard and puts numbers into a tweet.”
Mace entered the gubernatorial race last August after choosing not to seek reelection for Congress. Initially a leading candidate, she now finds herself in a competitive multi-candidate contest.
South Carolina law necessitates a run-off if no candidate achieves the required 50 percent majority.
Prediction Markets
Kalshi indicates Mace has under a 4 percent chance of securing the Republican nomination, compared to 68 percent for Evette and 27 percent for Wilson. On Polymarket, Mace’s chances have dropped from 45 percent in December to under 5 percent, while Evette rose from 30 percent pre-Trump endorsement to 68 percent, and Wilson currently stands at 24 percent.
Dynamic Shift with Trump
The primary race differs markedly from 2024 when Mace and Trump were politically aligned. Mace supported Trump’s presidential campaign, and Trump endorsed her congressional reelection. The bond was strained due to Mace’s demand for the release of classified documents related to Jeffrey Epstein.
Mace, a survivor of sexual assault, criticized the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files during Trump’s tenure. While some conservatives supported full transparency, it remained delicate among Republican strategists. Mace’s demands contrasted with other candidates who avoided the issue.
Mace addressed the situation last Friday on X, stating: “If sacrificing my values is the price of an endorsement, I will never pay it. South Carolina deserves a Governor who answers to her people, not to the establishment.”
Impact on Other Lawmakers
Mace isn’t alone in facing repercussions. Republican Representative Thomas Massie, who pushed for a vote on the document’s release, commended Mace, alongside Boebert and former Representative Greene, for their efforts. Massie remarked that only those three signed his initial discharge petition and faced serious consequences.
Massie lost his primary last month to Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein. Greene opted out of reelection citing differences with Trump over the Epstein files. Boebert confronts a Trump-backed challenge after supporting Massie.
Future Outlook
The Republican primary is set for June 9 in South Carolina. A run-off will occur if no candidate obtains over 50 percent of votes. With undecided voters playing a considerable role, candidates are likely to intensify their campaigns as Trump’s endorsement continues to impact the race’s progression.